The COVID-19 Thread

[NFFrog]

FF...As I'm sure you know, deaths are a lagging indicator and would be expected to rise for a while yet (as are positive tests, for that matter, except about 2-4 weeks less lagging).Basically if the community rate goes up or down it's not seen in the positive test stats for about 10 days, the hospitalization rates change a bit later, with death only tracking that same change about a month later. Better treatments help, as can changes downward in the age of the infected population. But this can be disentangled mathematically if necessary for research/prediction..

In particular, in TX/AR/FL it looks like the positive test rate may be turning the corner. But expect at the least another 10K deaths or more in TX over the next 2-3 weeks before any dropoff as the present death rate reflects the actual situation a month ago now and the observed positive test rate about 2 weeks ago, give or take.

[Rothbardian]

FF...As I'm sure you know, deaths are a lagging indicator and would be expected to rise for a while yet (as are positive tests, for that matter, except about 2-4 weeks less lagging).Basically if the community rate goes up or down it's not seen in the positive test stats for about 10 days, the hospitalization rates change a bit later, with death only tracking that same change about a month later. Better treatments help, as can changes downward in the age of the infected population. But this can be disentangled mathematically if necessary for research/prediction..

In particular, in TX/AR/FL it looks like the positive test rate may be turning the corner. But expect at the least another 10K deaths or more in TX over the next 2-3 weeks before any dropoff as the present death rate reflects the actual situation a month ago now and the observed positive test rate about 2 weeks ago, give or take.

How is CA looking?

[NFFrog]

Slower growth, i.e., shallower curve, rather than the sharp spikes we see in the other three, so changes will be slower as they are less drastic and harder to see statistically.

[RSK]

[Newbomb Turk]

Herman Cain just died of COVID.

[weklfrog]

Herman Cain just died of COVID.

He was at the trump Tulsa rally on June 20 without wearing a mask and tested positive on June 29.

[Lyle Lanley III]

Who knew Herman Cain was so deep state that he'd fake his own death just to perpetuate a left-wing media hoax?

[pcf]

It's a mystery wrapped in a riddle inside an enigma.

The mask gave me Covid. It is a hoax. It isn't real and it is all China's fault. It will disappear after the election.

[pcf]

Herman Cain just died of COVID.

He had Covid when he died, but we don't know what he died of. They just blame Covid to scare people.

[NFFrog]

Re. Cain: What will Gohmert say, I wonder?

[NFFrog]

Re. lagging indicators, even though the rise in case rates seems to have slowed, the deaths in both FL and AZ are still setting daily records. This will turn likely in a week or two in these two states. Not to say that the continuing mortality won't be serious.

[Rothbardian]

Who knew Herman Cain was so deep state that he'd fake his own death just to perpetuate a left-wing media hoax?

Man, he'd do anything to own the Libs...

[RSK]

[Lyle Lanley III]

The American death count has now passed 155,000.

[Duquesne Frog]

So many struggle with this concept ...

[pcf]

So many struggle with this concept ...

I picked up some to go from Sesame House and I realized I'm not sure how to regulate my voice when I have a mask and they have the plexiglass wall up. I felt a little shouty. It must be the cheapest lunch in DFW, btw.

Most people that we encounter on rare occasions at grocery stores or out in the park are respectful, polite and good natured. Most walkers give a nod and a wide berth.