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The COVID-19 Thread

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  • The COVID-19 Thread

    The American death count has now passed 140,000.

  • #2
    Texas reporting over 14,000 new cases today. Yikes.

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  • #3
    Originally posted by Friskyfrog View Post
    Texas reporting over 14,000 new cases today. Yikes.
    Florida is in nearly unconstrained growth at the moment. Case rate up 13% again just this week. Arizona seems to maybe have turned a corner and the rate is slightly decreasing.

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    • #4
      Originally posted by NFFrog View Post

      Florida is in nearly unconstrained growth at the moment. Case rate up 13% again just this week. Arizona seems to maybe have turned a corner and the rate is slightly decreasing.
      Georgia looking to be a growing hot spot and potentially Alabama and both the Carolinas.

      Comment


      • #5
        I finally started learning a new skill during all this... picking locks.

        Backstory: I have a Sentry fire safe that I can't find the key for. There are only four things in it, but they are worth several thousand dollars (a copy of Amazing Fantasy #15, 2 copies of Amazing Spider-Man #238, and a first collected edition of Charles Dickens's Oliver Twist) and I was wanting to show somebody the Amazing Fantasy. I looked at replacement keys but discovered a lock pick set costs less than a replacement key. So i bought a lock pick set.

        Sentry fire safes are not meant to keep people out, just protect your valuables from fire. That's why I was able to pick the lock in like 10 seconds.

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        • #6
          I still see people mentioning Sweden regarding covid as an alternative to what the rest of the world generally did.

          Sweden took the same economic hit as it neighbors, but it got a whole lot more death. It got 40% more death per million residents than the US and 12x more than Norway.

          Denmark's economy shrank by 4.1% and Sweden's by 4.5%.Danish unemployment is 5.6% while Sweden hit 9%.

          There is no off ramp, no loophole, and no escape from a worldwide economic and health catastrophe. The world's nations have all been made losers.

          Whether things are officially shut down or die from lack of consumer activity, it all ends up roughly the same. You just get to decide how much death and disease you want to spread while you lose economically.

          Some people genuinely can't imagine a no win situation and are looking for the place where everything is normal to escape to. Some think it is all a political hoax tied to the election and don't look outside US borders. Some think they can power through as if the problem is a lack of will. The only analogy that works is that this is an asbestos removal job that costs more to complete than it pays and you have the long term effects to contend with on top.

          Economically, it pays to inflate everyone's bubble equally. There isn't one key industry or player to keep alive. We've got to think of the economy as the F-1 engines in the Saturn rockets. They famously needed baffles to solve uneven combustion which made them blow up. We'll keep this thing together if we pump money evenly. If we don't, we'll blow up. If we starve it of fuel, we don;t move.

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          • #7
            There is no rhyme or reason to any of the deaths or economic effects between countries or states. For instance, Colorado and Georgia reopened at the same time and are seeing different infection and death rates. We really don't know shit about COVID-19.

            “The simple answer is that in a pandemic, most people will change their behavior to avoid catching the virus. The cautious behavior is voluntary, irrespective of whether there is no lockdown...or there is a lockdown." - Dhaval Joshi
            Last edited by Rothbardian; July 18, 2020, 09:51 AM.

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            • #8
              Originally posted by Rothbardian View Post
              There is no rhyme or reason to any of the deaths or economic effects between countries or states. For instance, Colorado and Georgia reopened at the same time and are seeing different infection and death rates. We really don't know shit about COVID-19.

              “The simple answer is that in a pandemic, most people will change their behavior to avoid catching the virus. The cautious behavior is voluntary, irrespective of whether there is no lockdown...or there is a lockdown." - Dhaval Joshi
              Some variable portion of it is voluntary and forms the firewall. It is why we will see the virus growth burn out when it exhausts the ready fuel of people ignoring precautions and the ones who must be exposed by fate. My wife just lost a cousin who was a doctor in Mexico yesterday to Covid.

              The lockdowns/quarantines/sheltering in place do change behavior though. It eliminates some competitive drive and provides less choice to people inclined toward bad choices. It allows us to preserve as much as we can from the fire.

              In the case of Scandinavia, though, we have good comparisons to make. Sweden didn't fare better than their neighbors. They did worse. They had more death and didn't protect their economy. I think sometimes you are going to lose and the only way to play is to get out as healthy as possible.

              I still contend that aggressive attempts to remain normal are like when Texas Tech and KK decided to keep risking it and got 82 laid on them because they didn't want to kill the clock.

              Our inflexibility based on our worldviews usually doesn't cost us greatly. People can often follow their ideology with only minor costs or benefit gains. The bleeding heart who has to feed stray cats only occasionally gets an overwhelming problem from it. The contrarian only has minor scrapes from doing his own thing. However, some extreme situations can arise where the feeder should stop feeding and the contrarian needs to conform.
              Last edited by pcf; July 18, 2020, 10:33 AM.

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              • #9
                Originally posted by pcf View Post

                My wife just lost a cousin who was a doctor in Mexico yesterday to Covid.
                Oh no, he died? He was just in his 30s, right? So sorry.

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                • #10
                  Originally posted by Friskyfrog View Post

                  Oh no, he died? He was just in his 30s, right? So sorry.
                  32. It was about 21 days from beginning of illness to his passing. Mexico really isn't bothering with specific Covid fighting from what we hear and I haven't read anything that disputes that.

                  I would think viral load is probably the key and most easily forgotten factor. Health and age are factors we tend to focus on, but the distancing and PPE get short shrift for making it less lethal. I'd bet we're all in at risk groups if we get a good dose.

                  That's why I don't think segregation for some and business as usual for all other groups would provide the mild cases and herd immunity that some people expect from normalization.
                  Last edited by pcf; July 18, 2020, 11:26 AM.

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                  • #11
                    Heart Disease, the #1 leading cause of death, claims about 125 Texan lives per day. Cancer, the #2 leading cause of death, claims about 111 Texan lives per day.

                    Over the last 4 days of the recent surge in death rate, COVID-19 has claimed an average of 146 Texans lives.

                    Not great for a new, highly infectious disease to rocket past every other leading cause of death. I hope this trend is short-lived.
                    Last edited by Lyle Lanley III; July 18, 2020, 11:49 AM.

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                    • #12
                      Originally posted by Lyle Lanley III View Post
                      Heart Disease, the #1 leading cause of death, claims about 125 Texan lives per day. Cancer, the #2 leading cause of death, claims about 111 Texan lives per day.

                      Over the last 4 days of the recent surge in death rate, COVID-19 has claimed an average of 146 Texans lives.

                      Not great for a new, highly infectious disease to rocket past every other leading cause of death. I hope this trend is short-lived.
                      Well, that’s still less than cancer and heart disease combined, so I don’t know what the big deal is.

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                      • #13
                        On a long enough timeline the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.

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                        • #14

                          The Mavs are flooding their facilities with Husky 891 Arena disinfectant. I wonder if this is overkill or how all sports teams are doing it? It seems like the virus by touch mode of transmission has been de-emphasized lately, but maybe this is zero tolerance rather than reasonable risk based.
                          LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – No one has tried this before. There wasn’t a blueprint. Or a timeframe. Certainly, there was more doubt and concern than hope. On...

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                          • #15
                            Basketball players should be forced to wear full body condoms like the sex scene in Naked Gun...

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