Instead of using bowl games (and all the intrigue that makes them slightly unpredictable ... coaching changes, players sitting out, large variation in team interest in playing) to do a final checkout of the DUSHEE model, I thought I'd take a look at the conference championship games.

Before I do that, lets do a post mortem on the Frogs. The Frogs end the regular season ranked 97th, dropping precipitously over the last three weeks. I haven't checked, but I'm pretty sure this is the lowest the Frogs have ever ended a season in DUSHEE. And I don't think there is another season even close. After that miracle against Baylor in Week 10 in Kill's first game at the helm, the Frogs followed that up with their 3 worst DUSHEE performances of the year. Remember when there was all that commentary about the Baylor game being an indication that the team just needed to play loose and free from the strict micro-managing of Patterson? Yeah, well. The Frogs were bad this year under Patterson, averaging a -4.5 DUSHEE score. Even with the Baylor game included, the Frogs under Kill averaged a -13.5 DUSHEE score, and a -24.9 in the last 3 games.

Once it was all said and done, the Frogs were above average in only 3 games all year, all wins, against Cal, Tech, and Baylor.

Enough of the Frogs. Let's look at the CCGs

CUSA
Western Kentucky @ UTSA

The Hilltoppers and Roadrunners did face off in Bowling Green for the CUSA opener for both teams in Week 6. UTSA won in a barn burner 52-46, with Western Kentucky outgaining UTSA 670-564. The teams ended the season on different trajectories with WKU reeling off huge wins in 4 of the last 5, jumping from 62nd to 19th in the DUSHEE rankings. UTSA faded a bit down the stretch, staying undefeated until getting blown out in Denton, but winning unimpressively against UAB and USM. Current Line: WKU -1
DUSHEE Line: Push (UTSA getting a 2.7 Home Advantage boost)

PAC12
Oregon vs. Utah in Las Vegas

Utah blew out Oregon in SLC two weeks ago (38-7, 386-294 YM). While Oregon has spent most of the season ranked well above Utah (blue bloodish plus win in Columbus), DUSHEE was never all that high on the Ducks, who made it as high as 24th until that blow out loss to Utah, and finished at 31st. Utah, on the other hand, rode blowout wins against UCLA and Stanford to a higher DUSHEE rating than what the polls indicated. Utah ended the regular season 12th. Current Line: Utah -2.5
DUSHEE Line: Utah -5.0 (Utah wins 60%)

B12
Oklahoma State vs. Baylor in Arlington

The Fightin' Boone Pickenses took down the Rapey Bears 24-14 (402-284 YM) in Stillwater back in Week 5. Oklahoma State was one of the most consistently good teams in the conference, moving up the rankings nearly every week. Baylor was also pretty consistent save for that inexplicable loss to TCU in Week 10; that loss dropped them from 17th to 35th in the DUSHEE rankings. They did manage to climb back up to 21st with comfortable wins against OU and Kansas State. Without that loss to TCU, Baylor is ranked 13th with a 13.7 DUSHEE. Current Line: OkSt -5.0
DUSHEE Line: OkSt -9.2 (OkSt wins 70%)

MAC
Kent St. vs. NIU in Detroit

It was a weird year for the MAC. The MAC was the worst conference based on DUSHEE average score. NIU and CMU were the only teams to get to 7 wins against D-1A teams. If DUSHEE had been used to select the MAC championship participants, it would have been 6-5 Toledo (48th DUSHEE) vs. #65 5-6 Miami-Ohio (65th DUSHEE). DUSHEE thinks both of these teams are roughly equivalent to TCU, both in the bottom half of an already terrible conference. These are bad teams.

Kent St. and NIU did face off in Week 10 in Kent, Ohio, also a barn-burner, with Kent St. winning 52-47 (682-663 YM). Current Line: Kent St. -3.0
DUSHEE Line: NIU -1.8 (NIU wins 53%)

MWC
Utah State vs. San Diego State in Carson, Ca

Another CCG where DUSHEE would have picked two other opponents ... 8-3 Air Force (11th) and 8-3 Fresno (40th). While the human polls have had SDSU in the 20s for much of the last half of the season, DUSHEE has viewed the Aztecs as a paper tiger, putting them no higher than 58th all season, ending at 67th. Utah State has hovered in the same territory all year, finishing the season at 63rd.

These teams did not face each other in the regular season.

A question here is whether to give SDSU some home-field-advantage, playing in suburban LA. I think that is enough travel to matter ... it isn't their home stadium. So no HFA for the Aztecs. Current Line: SDSU -5.5
DUSHEE Line: USU -1.5 (USU wins 53%)

SBC
Appalachian St. at Louisiana in Lafayette, LA

This is one of those games where a team will be playing knowing that their coach is leaving them. The two teams did face each other in Lafayette in Week 7, a ULaLa blowout (41-13, 455-211 YM).

App St. has been red hot down the stretch, blowing out their SBC schedule after losing to Louisiana-Lafayette. Louisiana was a little more spotty down the stretch, struggling with bad Arkansas State, Troy, and Louisiana-Monroe teams, but blowing out a good Liberty team and a not-so-good Texas State team. The Cajuns also played one of the softest schedules in FBS, 125th out of 130 teams. Current Line: AppSt -3.0
DUSHEE Line: AppSt -3.4 (AppSt wins 55%, ULaLa getting a 2.7 Home Advantage boost)

AAC
Houston @ Cincinnati

The AAC, after several years of being clearly the best of the "Group of 5" conferences, had a very down year. Based on average DUSHEE score the AAC (-3.8) was a distant second to the MWC (-0.1); the MWC was closer to the PAC12 (0.5), ACC (2.1), and B12 (2.9) than AAC was to the MWC. Cincinnati was far and away the best team in the league. Houston ended up with a salty record, but their loss was a bad one (a blowout neutral site loss to Tech) and they struggled more against the second easiest schedule in FBS.

Cincinnati started strong with their marquis win in South Bend, aside from struggling with a bad Indiana team. Then they struggled in the middle of the season against some pretty bad teams (Navy, Tulane, Tulsa, and USF), but then crushed solid SMU and ECU teams to close out the season, climbing from 18th to 6th. Houston steadily improved throughout the season, climbing from the high 50s to the mid 30s, mainly on the strength of good wins against Tulsa, SMU, and Memphis. Current Line: Cin -10.5
DUSHEE Line: Cin -12.5 (Cin wins 70%, Cin getting a 2.7 Home Advantage boost)

SEC
Georgia vs. Alabama in Atlanta

I don't know why we bother to have a playoff given that this is the real National Championship every year, but nonetheless, here it is. For the most part, DUSHEE has agreed with that consensus, placing Georgia #1 and Alabama #2 almost all year. Ohio State briefly knocked Bama out of the 2nd spot until Michigan whipped them and knocked them back down to 3rd.

Georgia's worst game was their first, against Clemson ... and they were more that SEVENTEEN points better than Clemson's average opponent against them. That was Georgia's WORST game of the year. Bama was a little less consistent, looking just slightly above average against Florida and LSU, but curbstomping a number of teams, including Miami, Mississippi State, and Tennessee.

The two teams did not face each other in the regular season. Current Line: UGa -6.5
DUSHEE Line: UGa -6.1 (UGa wins 63%)

ACC
Pitt vs. Wake Forest in Charlotte

Pitt was the most consistent team in the country this season (based on standard deviation in weekly DUSHEE scores); their best performance was a +24.7 against Virginia Tech, and their worst performances were their two losses which were barely above average (+1.7 vs. WMU, +2.8 vs. Miami). Pitt Wake had both a higher ceiling and lower floor, putting up a +31.8 against BC the week after laying a -14.2 turd against Clemson.

The other interesting element in this matchup is that this is a case where the Yardage Differential correction results in their close ranking. Wake has an almost 3-point edge over Pitt in PD but Pitt has outgained their opponents by 45 more yards than Wake. Thus Pitt's PD is adjusted up about 1.5 points while Wake's is adjusted down by roughly the same amount.

All of this amounted to the two teams ending up in almost exactly the same spot in the DUSHEE rankings.

They did not face each other in the regular season. Current Line: Pitt -3.0
DUSHEE Line: Pitt -0.2 (Push)

B1G
Iowa vs. Michigan in Indianapolis

Iowa looked very good early in the season, climbing as high as 6th in the DUSHEE rankings in Week 5. By Week 9, Iowa had dropped out of the Top 25 due to bad performances against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Northwestern and kept dropping all the way to 50th by the regular season's end. FWIW, DUSHEE would have picked Wisconsin to represent the B1G West.

Michigan, on the other hand, rode some massive early season scores (WMU, NIU, and Wisconsin) to a top 5 ranking and held on through a mini-swoon through the mid-season to close the season with huge wins over Maryland and Ohio State.

Michigan and Iowa did not meet during the regular season. Current Line: Michigan -11.0
DUSHEE Line: Michigan -15.3 (Mich wins 76%)